Phillies vs Marlins: Betting preview & predictions for Tuesday

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Aaron nola
PHILADELPHIA, PA – JULY 24: Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (27) delivers a pitch during the fifth inning of the game between the Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies on July 24, 2020 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by John Jones/Icon Sportswire)

The Philadelphia Phillies are back at Citizens Bank Park for the first game of a three-game slate against the Miami Marlins. Both teams are slumping heavily and need their turnarounds to start here. But which team will get off to the better start?

The Marlins have lost seven in a row, while the Phillies are coming off of a disappointing sweep against the Giants. It’s the first time since early July that the Phils have been swept and they’ll be hoping it’s the last time for a while after close shave against the Diamondbacks.

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The Phillies have won 7 of the 13 games between the two teams this season, which is a much better record than what we saw last year where Miami won 10 fixtures. But with Miami out of playoff contention and the Phils needing the push for a Red October, this could get very interesting.

Pitching matchup

Aaron Nola (9-11, 3.43 ERA) vs Jesús Luzardo (3-6, 3.44 ERA).

Aaron Nola takes the mound tonight after an uncharacteristic outing where he allowed 8 runs against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The good news is that the Marlins rank 28th in hits and ERA. If there is ever a bounceback spot, this is it.

Luzardo meanwhile has given up at least 4 runs in 4 of his last 6 starts. This could be a great situation for the Phillies offense to really start attacking early.

Betting preview

The Phillies are understandably favorites today but I think this is a good spot to play them at -1.5. They’re 9-11-3 when facing teams averaging under 4 runs per game and 28-18 against teams with a winning percentage below .460.

Photo by John Jones/Icon Sportswire