Marlins vs Phillies: Betting Preview, Predictions & Picks

PHILADELPHIA, PA – MAY 22: Philadelphia Phillies relief pitcher Ranger Suarez (55) delivers during the Major League Baseball game between the Boston Red Sox and the Philadelphia Phillies on May 22, 2021 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Cody Glenn/Icon Sportswire)

The Phillies slipped to a disappointing defeat the past two nights in Miami. Their offense just isn’t clicking all together yet, especially at the top of their lineup. They’ll be looking to make up for lost time against their bogey team when the Marlins and Phils slug it out again tonight at 6:10. Here’s all you need to know, as the Phillies are looking to avoid losing their fifth straight:

Ups and downs

To start the series, the Phillies ruined all “NRFI” bets out there and scored right away to kick things off. They held a 1-0 lead through the opening three frames only to give up four runs in the next two innings in game one. Despite nearly crawling back, they couldn’t complete the comeback on Thursday night.

Last night, the offense didn’t click at all. Zach Eflin struggled early, allowing four runs in the first two innings. He settled in nicely and ended up striking out four in four innings pitched. However, by that point, the damage was already done and the offense couldn’t compensate for his struggles.

Nick Castellanos did hit a solo home run in the eighth, but that didn’t contribute to anything but his own stats. For the sake of Phillies fans, maybe that will be the spark they need heading into the Saturday night matchup.

Pitching matchup

Ranger Suarez gets his second start of the young season tonight. In his first appearance, he did not look like the 2021 Ranger Suarez. Allowing three runs on five hits within 2.2 innings got Ranger pulled quickly into the game. He did show short flashes of his old self, but nothing was clicking consistently. In his career, he’s appeared 13 times against Miami (two starts) en route to a 3.60 ERA.

Standing opposite him will be Trevor Rogers. Rogers has been a bright spot for the Marlins the past couple of years, especially after being named an All-Star last season. He’s 8-11 in his career with a 3.25 ERA, and went 5 innings in his first start this season, giving up three runs (only two earned), six hits, and a walk.

Betting lines

As of now, the Phillies come into this matchup as +102 underdogs, meaning a $100 bet would land you $102 profit if they win. At +1.5 runs, they’re -240. $240 would be needed to win $100. The total is an even eight runs.

Betting prediction

Despite what we’ve seen so far in the series, the Marlins rank lower than the Phillies in many offensive stats so far this season. Provided that Ranger Suarez can simply be just half of what he was last year, the Phillies should come out of this game with a win.

Betting on the Phillies moneyline at +102 will be my play today. A $100 bet would return $102 profit. If you’re looking at any player props, many of the Phillies batters have struggled against Rogers so far. However, Nick Castellanos is seeing the ball well and has never faced off against the left-hander. The odds are not posted yet since the lineup is not official, but parlaying Castellanos to record a hit with a Phillies win may be great value to get some money heading into the Easter holiday.

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Photo by Cody Glenn/Icon Sportswire